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Evidence: the less press freedom there is in a country, the less noise there is in the country's daily infection counts. This is statistically significant at the p < 0.05 level.

Interpretation: less press freedom => more faking of "open" governmental data: SARS-CoV-2 counts.

Comments welcome on draft revision (81da1ae): upload.disroot.org/r/30FUcbz0#=

arXiv.org/abs/2007.11779 = zenodo.org/record/4432080 = codeberg.org/boud/subpoisson

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@boud Thank you for using hard data to verify and confirm what a year ago was only an intuitive assessment:
angdraug.medium.com/covid-19-a

Back then, you pointed out that I underestimated the difference between population and case mortality rates. In US, we so far had ~30M COVID cases and ~600k deaths – case mortality rate ~1.9%. The 3% I assumed in my projection of 18M cases and 900k deaths by July 2021 is not that far off, but it is now evident that mortality rate will keep going down.

@angdraug

Done: zenodo.org/record/4765705

This is now resubmitted for the next round of peer review. If all goes well :) the peer reviews and response(s) will become public after acceptance.

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